The trade that defines this team
Because of the excitement over Ichiro!, I decided to check out the M's/Rangers game last night. I'm not much of a fan of the M's --they did eliminate the Sox from the playoffs in 2000-- but a post over at the U.S.S. Mariner got me interested in Ichiro!'s quest for the hits record.
Nevertheless, I got to see hits numbered 257 and 258 and it was pretty incredible. Ichiro really can put the ball wherever he wants. His bat control is amazing. If the M's can surround him with the right players, he can really be an effective player. For one, he changes the configuration of defenses (infielders playing up all the time), and , while his OBP isn't great, getting OBP on hits instead of from walks advances more runners. Herego, if you get a big-time slugger behind him (Beltran, Sexson, etc.), and a decent OBP guy in front or behind him (like, say, Jeremy Reed), I think you'd score a lot of runs.
Which brings me to my unhappiness with the Sox. I was in and out of the Sox win over KC and it made me realize what a collective dope the Sox management is. Freddy Garcia came to the Sox in a trade in June that sent Jeremy Reed, Mike Morse and Miguel Olivo to the Mariners. What I said then is what I will say now: the Sox got hosed.
At the time fo the trade, I called Mike Morse a throw-in to the trade. This is still true, to a large extent, except that the Sox will likely have a hole on the bench for next year. Jose Valentin is probably gone --he's a free agent-- and Morse had a nice year, putting up a .240 ML EQa. That means he'd be almost as good as Willie Harris (.242), Joe Crede (.247), Valentin (.250), and better then current roster fodder like Kelly Dransfeldt (.232) or Timo Perez (.217). Of course, EQa doesn't take defense into accounty, but having a decent bat on the bench isn't a crime, is it?
Miguel Olivo was a bigger deal to me at the time, and I'm more down on him at this point. While he has struggled with a kidney stone injury, Olivo (.231 EQa) hasn't been markedly better than Ben Davis (.227). Olivo is only a year younger than Davis, so that's no big difference. Olivo has slighter more in the Major Leagues, but Davis probably has more potential. He's been called a clubhouse cancer by two different organizations (Seattle and San Diego), so, youneverknow. Nevertheless, I'm not totally down on the catcher swap.
The main parts of the trade were Freddy Garcia and Jeremy Reed. Garcia has pitched OK for the Sox, but he is not the pitcher the Sox got in June. For a good example of this, take a look at his pre- and post-ASB stats, which is essentially when he was traded (not exactly exact, as he was traded two starts before the ASB):
Pre All-Star: 3.45
Post ASB: 4.78
His April ERA was 2.27. His 3.81 ERA this year is nice and he'll be a fine pitcher, but he not a "true No. 1," no matter how many ear surgeries he gets or how many of Ozzeroo's relatives he marries. He is what he is; a pretty inconsistent pitcher that eats up innings. Munch, munch, munch.
Reed was Baseball Prospectus' No. 2 prospect coming into this season. In the minors this year, Reed put up a .268 ML EQa, which is very good for a high-minors level player. But, this should not have been a suprise, we're talking about a guy who hit .409 in AA last year. Nevertheless, he didn't have the same kind of year in 2004 as he did in 2003, so some soured on him. Anyway, this is what BP said about him before this year:
From his entry in the White Sox section:
"Reed could be a Rusty Greer type of player next year with further upward potential aove and beyond that -- two of his top six PECOTA comparables are Tony Gwynn and Don Mattingly."
From his entry in the top 50 Prospects section:
"There's some concern that his freakish ability to hit in the upper .300s will turn out to be a fluke, but even if it is, his offensive game is well-rounded enough that he'll be an All-Star in the Majors if he hits just .300. And if it isn't a fluke?"
Well, let's cut to my watching the M's play the Rangers last night. Reed was called up on Sept. 1, when rosters expanded. Guess what he has done so far? How about put up a .335 EQa? How about an OPS of .925? How about batting .427? Certainly, his walk rate stinks (4 in over 60 PAs) and he hasn't hit for much power. But, if he can hit in the upper .300s, that's not bad, is it?
Argh. I'm not ready to put Reed in the HoF just yet, but the doubts about his hitting ML pitching are totally unfounded. If he's not in the M's starting OF next year, I'll be very suprised. Having two guys like Ichiro! and Reed on a team cannot hurt you. IF the M's can get a decent power hitter after those two, look out.
And he could've replaced Magglio. Thanks, Kenny Williams.
Nevertheless, I got to see hits numbered 257 and 258 and it was pretty incredible. Ichiro really can put the ball wherever he wants. His bat control is amazing. If the M's can surround him with the right players, he can really be an effective player. For one, he changes the configuration of defenses (infielders playing up all the time), and , while his OBP isn't great, getting OBP on hits instead of from walks advances more runners. Herego, if you get a big-time slugger behind him (Beltran, Sexson, etc.), and a decent OBP guy in front or behind him (like, say, Jeremy Reed), I think you'd score a lot of runs.
Which brings me to my unhappiness with the Sox. I was in and out of the Sox win over KC and it made me realize what a collective dope the Sox management is. Freddy Garcia came to the Sox in a trade in June that sent Jeremy Reed, Mike Morse and Miguel Olivo to the Mariners. What I said then is what I will say now: the Sox got hosed.
At the time fo the trade, I called Mike Morse a throw-in to the trade. This is still true, to a large extent, except that the Sox will likely have a hole on the bench for next year. Jose Valentin is probably gone --he's a free agent-- and Morse had a nice year, putting up a .240 ML EQa. That means he'd be almost as good as Willie Harris (.242), Joe Crede (.247), Valentin (.250), and better then current roster fodder like Kelly Dransfeldt (.232) or Timo Perez (.217). Of course, EQa doesn't take defense into accounty, but having a decent bat on the bench isn't a crime, is it?
Miguel Olivo was a bigger deal to me at the time, and I'm more down on him at this point. While he has struggled with a kidney stone injury, Olivo (.231 EQa) hasn't been markedly better than Ben Davis (.227). Olivo is only a year younger than Davis, so that's no big difference. Olivo has slighter more in the Major Leagues, but Davis probably has more potential. He's been called a clubhouse cancer by two different organizations (Seattle and San Diego), so, youneverknow. Nevertheless, I'm not totally down on the catcher swap.
The main parts of the trade were Freddy Garcia and Jeremy Reed. Garcia has pitched OK for the Sox, but he is not the pitcher the Sox got in June. For a good example of this, take a look at his pre- and post-ASB stats, which is essentially when he was traded (not exactly exact, as he was traded two starts before the ASB):
Pre All-Star: 3.45
Post ASB: 4.78
His April ERA was 2.27. His 3.81 ERA this year is nice and he'll be a fine pitcher, but he not a "true No. 1," no matter how many ear surgeries he gets or how many of Ozzeroo's relatives he marries. He is what he is; a pretty inconsistent pitcher that eats up innings. Munch, munch, munch.
Reed was Baseball Prospectus' No. 2 prospect coming into this season. In the minors this year, Reed put up a .268 ML EQa, which is very good for a high-minors level player. But, this should not have been a suprise, we're talking about a guy who hit .409 in AA last year. Nevertheless, he didn't have the same kind of year in 2004 as he did in 2003, so some soured on him. Anyway, this is what BP said about him before this year:
From his entry in the White Sox section:
"Reed could be a Rusty Greer type of player next year with further upward potential aove and beyond that -- two of his top six PECOTA comparables are Tony Gwynn and Don Mattingly."
From his entry in the top 50 Prospects section:
"There's some concern that his freakish ability to hit in the upper .300s will turn out to be a fluke, but even if it is, his offensive game is well-rounded enough that he'll be an All-Star in the Majors if he hits just .300. And if it isn't a fluke?"
Well, let's cut to my watching the M's play the Rangers last night. Reed was called up on Sept. 1, when rosters expanded. Guess what he has done so far? How about put up a .335 EQa? How about an OPS of .925? How about batting .427? Certainly, his walk rate stinks (4 in over 60 PAs) and he hasn't hit for much power. But, if he can hit in the upper .300s, that's not bad, is it?
Argh. I'm not ready to put Reed in the HoF just yet, but the doubts about his hitting ML pitching are totally unfounded. If he's not in the M's starting OF next year, I'll be very suprised. Having two guys like Ichiro! and Reed on a team cannot hurt you. IF the M's can get a decent power hitter after those two, look out.
And he could've replaced Magglio. Thanks, Kenny Williams.
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